Sunday, December 20, 2009, 2:27PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

Dow 10,000: The More Things Change, The More They Stay the Same

Posted Oct 15, 2009 12:30pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein

Wall Street's partying like it's 1999.  Literally.  More than 10 years after first eclipsing 10,000 and more than a year since it was last above the mark, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,015 on Wednesday.

For the bulls, it's a sign the U.S. is well on its way to recovery.

Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, points out a lot has changed since the Dow first broke the magical 10,000 barrier in March of 1999.  While most other assets have gained value, the Dow is stuck in the mud.  Worse yet, we're not even close to break even if you factor in the fact the dollar has lost 25% of its value in the last 10 years, based on the Dollar Index.

Here's some of Boockvar's other sobering stats comparing today vs. the first time the Dow cracked 10,000: 

  • Total US debt was $24.6T vs $50.8T today.
  • The CRB commodity index was at 192.40. Today, it stands at 269  
  • Gold was at $280. Now, it's hitting all-time highs above $1,060 per ounce.
  • A barrel of crude oil was $16.44, today it cracked $75. 

You get the point.

Aaron and Henry point out in the clip, there's a huge disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. While traders are making money, the unemployment rate is 9.8% - the highest since Reagan's first term. And the housing market is still in major trouble. RealtyTrac, reports nearly 1 million foreclosure filings in the third quarter, a 5% increase from the previous quarter and an increase of nearly 23% from the same time last year.

Yes, Dow 10,000 is a positive sign but 1999 it is not.

172 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 12:41PM EDT

Who cares, if you make money it doesn't matter. Hope stop being so negative an join the party. Why wait when you could have ridden this several dips. Last one to join is the biggest loser.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 12:42PM EDT

But it is different this time.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 12:43PM EDT

The worker drones still believe in their 401k plans. Now that's laughable!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 12:45PM EDT

V shaped.. boom time.. buy investment properties and FLIP em.. it's time to move DOW going to 15K....jobs? pffftttt.. who needs jobs... the Market is all that counts AND IT'S BOOMING... don't worry obama will take care of the market... want a job? that is so last administration.. don't need no stinkin job with obama.. LOOK, HE IS GIVING $250 BUCKOS OUT NOW.. obama has OBAMASTASH.. see what he did in deetroitt... obama STASH... is all that's needed and obama has it.. plenty of STASH.. so the MARKET is the winning lottery ticket.. get with it and praise the market... these 'fake ' unemployment figures... just trying to diss obama .. obama has GREEN AND SHOVEL READY JOBS FOR EVERYONE.. AHHH.. LIFE IS GOOD, THE MARKET IS UP AND OBAMA WANTS TO GIVE FREE HEALTH CARE AND PEOPLE ARE BALKING AT IT? HURRUMPH... LET'S SING MMM MMM MMMM

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 12:46PM EDT

Big deal...Dow 10,000...what is there to realistically celebrate? It's only illusionary wealth as the US dollar isn't worth as much as the paper it's printed on. The banks are back to big bonus and earnings thanks to the US taxpayer bailouts and companies show an increase not because they increased earnings but because they have cut working hours, scaled back inventories and cut job positions. The US hardly manufactures any tangible items here in the US...where are the jobs? New bubbles are being created and isn't it why we are in this mess in the 1st place? Rah Rah Dow 10, 000....nothing has truly improved.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 12:48PM EDT

As long as the market if booming it's all that matters.. economy is booming.. get with it... you rubes who aren't in the market are worthless anyway.. it's the market that counts.... depending on a job? SUCKERS... just depend on the market and it's boom time... buy buy buy... mmm mmm mmm

- Thursday October 15, 2009 12:49PM EDT

Wall Street and the executive class have been able to skim the returns out from under shareholders of public corporations because the new investor class is comprised mostly of ignorant passbook savers, not real, knowledgeable investors. Thus, ten years with negative real returns...in fact, negative nominal returns, if you add in transaction costs and carrying charges.

- Thursday October 15, 2009 12:50PM EDT

Bring Prechter Back Soon. You're part of the 97% Bull Crowd Now.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 12:51PM EDT

All smoke anyway, just like then

- Thursday October 15, 2009 12:53PM EDT

Not only is there a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, there seems to be no connection to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue or Capital Hill either!

- Thursday October 15, 2009 12:56PM EDT

A surge in the gold price cometh, perhaps imminently. In the next several weeks, the gold price might jump quickly to the $1500 level. A contact with excellent access to gold transaction information and developments has shared that the sharp price rise could come very soon "due to certain transactions that are being consummated at this very moment. Even if the Boyz try to hold own or depress the price, it will do them no good. The pressure that has been built up is uncontrollable. We shall see some big banks hit the wall very soon (weeks/months). The market will take over in very short order from here on forward." A phase has begun to remove illicit corrupt controls on the gold & silver market, from demand of physical bullion. The same source told a story about events at the London Bullion Market Assn. That market is to London what the COMEX is to the United States, both deep in corruption and government interference, where grossly inadequate metal inventory exists to maintain their charades of markets, each dominated by paper pricing. They manage paper markets for syndicates in total illegal operations. Several large gold futures contract holders are demanding physical delivery in London. The LBMA does not have the metal in inventory. The officials have offered the futures contract holders cash plus 25% dividend for settlement without gold delivery. The contract holders refused. They want their fuchn gold (using a French term by the source, my unique palatable spelling)!!! There was very high volume involved in the contracts. The standoff is not settled. It could go to court. The London authorities are trying desperately to keep the story from hitting the press. It helps to have the syndicate in control of the press networks. The Bank of England and one other European member central bank are working feverishly to fill the contract order, but unfortunately they are using very old gold bars that are reportedly only 90% gold. That invites a new potential challenge. The gold market could soon explode and possibly work toward a convergent fair market. My hint is that it is Germans and Swiss with other Europeans are working diligently and pointedly to kill off the US-UK bank nazis. A LBMA and COMEX bust and default is visible on the horizon. See the Jackass article entitled "Hitman Contracts to Bust Comex" (CLICK HERE) dated in May 27. It would include big bank ruin and legal prosecution. The same source hinted that the ruin of commodity exchanges could coincide with the bust of JPMorgan. So, based upon the London incident, gold has a real price of near $1300.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 15, 2009 12:58PM EDT

The bulk of the money is going into the wrong pockets. You work your ass off to get somewhere in this world and some scumbag comes along and screws you over AND gets compensated for it. Sure, I'll make some money from this bullshit, but I hope the Wall Street Banker politician scumbags all get incurable cancer and die. Oh, yeah, we will see about last one in ... he with the biggest wins the biggest ... jump in any time you want ... you can still make money.

- Thursday October 15, 2009 01:02PM EDT

Now all you brainiacs, where do suppose those Obama bucks come from,, , TAXES, which, have to go up, because spending never goes down, wait until that shoe drops!

- Thursday October 15, 2009 01:07PM EDT

Maybe the investors who sold out this country for chinese products will get chinese drywall in their mansions.Or maybe the same wall street crooks who caused the housing crisis but got bailed out by our tax money will fail.But not likely.Wall street celebrates because it no longer matters to them hoe the economy is doing.They can just get bailed out and wallow in our money.

- Thursday October 15, 2009 01:08PM EDT

Dollar hit a new low again today. Coinkydink?

- Thursday October 15, 2009 01:10PM EDT

This disconnect between the DJI and the toxic debt in the housing market, plus major unemployment is weird. Maybe the market could rally some more, but with the P/E so high, should it? I'm not selling any of my stocks right now, but I don't think it's a great time to buy any either.

- Thursday October 15, 2009 01:11PM EDT

Here is a theory?, when the DOW goes to 10,000+ the Volume drops, as stock becomes over-valued, inflated, no substance (Sep 08), with no where to go? Ergo, drop the DOW to 6500, as in March, then there is the Historical factor to rely on that the Market will go back up to 10,000 the following Oct? Buy Low, Sell High, Bubba! No Fundamental base, just cyclical deviations & fluctuations of Quantum Sector Analysis (QSA). But, this time, the Harvard School of Case Studies, has trained Pavlov's Dog! Say you Dr Greg?

- Thursday October 15, 2009 01:19PM EDT

Alot of investors are about to cash out - I've already done so. You're a fool if you are invested in a market where the S & P 500 P/E ratio for the 3rd quarter is at 139, only eclipsed by it's 2nd quarter performance at 144. Historically, any market with a P/E ration over 20 has soon come crashing down. The price to earnings ratio can only be adjusted down in three ways; earnings improve, stock prices fall, or some combination thereof. FACT: the P/E ration is a time-tested primary indicator for investing in a stock and we are in the most price-inflated market, but not overbought curiously enough, in the history of the markets. Stocks are NOT cheap and anyone that argues this point is an imbecile. Meanwhile, the dollar keeps crashing down to new lows. Combine this with all the money the Government is printing, and sooner or later (more likely sooner) logic will actually prevail in the market and the manipulation of the markets will come to an end.

- Thursday October 15, 2009 01:19PM EDT

Alot of investors are about to cash out - I've already done so. You're a fool if you are invested in a market where the S & P 500 P/E ratio for the 3rd quarter is at 139, only eclipsed by it's 2nd quarter performance at 144. Historically, any market with a P/E ration over 20 has soon come crashing down. The price to earnings ratio can only be adjusted down in three ways; earnings improve, stock prices fall, or some combination thereof. FACT: the P/E ration is a time-tested primary indicator for investing in a stock and we are in the most price-inflated market, but not overbought curiously enough, in the history of the markets. Stocks are NOT cheap and anyone that argues this point is an imbecile. Meanwhile, the dollar keeps crashing down to new lows. Combine this with all the money the Government is printing, and sooner or later (more likely sooner) logic will actually prevail in the market and the manipulation of the markets will come to an end.

- Thursday October 15, 2009 01:20PM EDT

Story of America=Stupid people doing stupid things.

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